There's been some chatter over social media that Virginia could be in play for the 2024 presidential election, despite how it's gone for the Democratic presidential candidate every year since 2008. That being said, it's only regarded as "Likely Democratic." But, the campaign for former and potentially future President Donald Trump looks to be hopeful about every state, even and including the bright blue ones. On Monday, RealClearPolitics featured a conversation between reporter Phil Wegmann and co-founder Tom Bevan from Friday, with Wegmann discussing some of those hopes from the Trump campaign as it pertains to New York and New Jersey, specifically when it comes to reactions to antisemitic protests on college campuses.
As Bevan pointed out, especially since President Joe Biden had been in Wisconsin that week and Trump had been in Michigan and Wisconsin, it looks like the race could come down to those two states, as well as other key battlegrounds. Polling released before and since then has shown that the race is particularly close and competitive in those two states as well as overall. Trump is leading Biden by +0.6 in Wisconsin and by +0.8 in Michigan, per RCP's averages.
"It does seem that in this 'Blue Wall' of the upper Midwest, Trump's leading, but not by very, very much. And that's where they're gonna spend the majority of their time and effort and money," Bevan offered, as he also wondered "is that where the Trump folks think this race is going to be decided, in one of those two states," when speaking to Wegmann about Wisconsin and Michigan.
Wegmann confirmed that "ground zero is going to be the Sun Belt and the Upper Midwest." Trump has an especially strong lead in states such as Nevada and Arizona. "They're going to try and compete in those seven states. But we're at that point in the race where both of these campaigns are making head fakes to different states perhaps to try and psych out the competition, get them to spend a lot of money there or actually to try and win it," he continued.
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What he "was taken aback by," Wegmann shared, citing his "conversations with Trump officials, is they think that what is happening currently on college campuses, could not only put Virginia and Minnesota in play, they're going to be making an appeal to what they call 'safety moms.'" Wegmann described them as "those mothers who are unhappy with what they're seeing on college campuses because their kids were denied a high school graduation and now a college graduation."
Many of this year's college seniors didn't just lose out on a commencement at places like Columbia University, where the main commencement was canceled after administrators caved to the demands from terrorist sympathizers on campus. They also missed out on high school graduations due to the COVID lockdowns from four years earlier. At these same schools, pro-Hamas agitators have also set up encampments and created a fearful environment for Jewish students.
"But they also think that Israel has become a polarizing issue and could perhaps even put New York and New Jersey in play," Wegmann mentioned, adding "it's hard to separate tough talk versus some aspiration, but it'll be an interesting race to follow, that's for sure."
While Wegmann didn't mention Maryland per that excerpt, that's another one where it comes to races not normally thought to be in play, specifically when it comes to the U.S. Senate race. Former Gov. Larry Hogan is expected to win the Republican primary and face either Rep. David Trone or Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. We'll know soon enough, as the primary takes place this Tuesday.
Again, this election is likely going to be close and competitive. More power to the Trump campaign if they want to fight for a chance in such bright blue states. Even if Trump doesn't win electoral votes from those states, it will be interesting to see what his total vote count is in New York and New Jersey, as more and more voters are fed up with the state of the country due to such pro-Hamas protests and many more reasons.
Even if it would be less likely for Trump to win New York and/or New Jersey as opposed to Wisconsin and/or Michigan, polling has spelled bad news for Biden in those states in that he's not performing as he should be.
Trump himself has signaled before that he's hopeful about New York and New Jersey. Last month, after he had been in court in the hush money case against him, the former president traveled to the Sanaa Convenient Store in Harlem, where he received a warm welcome and cheers of "four more years!" He was quoted as saying "we think we can win New York." Even more recently, Trump spoke at a massive rally over the weekend in Wildwood, New Jersey, where 80,000 people may have attended.
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